We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.- Bill Gates, The Road Ahead
- Carlota Perez and others have characterized the S-curve (a sigmoid function to be precise) as an installation stage leading to a deployment stage. To me it looks like three main phases that could be characterized as a) a slow build up to some kind of critical mass, b) compounding taking effect and driving exponential growth, c) ultimately diminishing returns once some kind of limiting factor (e.g. number of hours in a day we're awake, number of humans on Earth, etc.) starts to take effect.
- If the intersection point is truly somewhere between two and ten years as Gates suggests, those five year strategic planning processes that stodgy corporatations love so much may not be such a bad idea in tech after all.
- Maybe there's an evolutionary reason why we tend to think linearly. But maybe evolving to thinking more like an S will be one of the signs of the Singularity :)